Prevalence of Seabird Species and Collision Events in Offshore Wind Farms (PrediCtOr)

Led by the Carbon Trust under the Offshore Renewables Joint Industry Programme (ORJIP)



Recent bird collision monitoring campaigns in offshore wind farms have shown very low numbers of collisions. However, this isn’t reflected in estimates derived from collision risk modelling, which are used to inform consenting decisions. Reducing uncertainty in empirical bird collision rates is important for the growth and sustainability of the offshore wind industry. Uncertainty surrounding bird collision rates is currently a key consenting risk which can slow down and, in some cases, prevent the realisation of offshore wind developments. The PrediCtOr project sets out to develop a coordinated approach for reducing uncertainty surrounding bird collision risk and improving post‐construction monitoring (PCM) at offshore windfarms. This will be achieved by: 

  • Developing a robust data framework that will allow the integration and combined analysis of datasets from past and future collision monitoring campaigns.  
  • Developing and establishing best practice guidance on the use of monitoring technologies, equipment installation offshore and data handling.
  • Providing recommendations for future study designs best suited to monitoring bird flight tracks and collisions in and around offshore wind farms.  

Conducting an onshore field study to understand biases and limitations of monitoring equipment from various suppliers.

The project aims to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of existing and emerging data, to further our understanding of collision risk and influencing factors. It will act as a starting point for a database to grow over time, which will increase the statistical power of assessments aimed at estimating bird collision risk. The expected outputs (recommendations, best practices, and recommended designs) will ensure that future campaigns are designed and conducted in a meaningful way and lead to comparable findings at an international scale.

The PrediCtOr project was initiated and set-up within the Offshore Renewables Joint Industry Programme (ORJIP). The Carbon Trust is working with the British Trust for Ornithology and Waardenburg Ecology, to deliver the PrediCtOr project. The project forms part of the Offshore Wind Evidence and Change Programme (OWEC), led by the Crown Estate in partnership with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.  

Project timeline

PrediCtOr consists of nine work packages and will run for 24 months from kick off in March 2024. The project is expected to conclude in February 2026. 

Lead organisation

The Carbon Trust

Research partners 

British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Waardenburg Ecology 

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Project partners

Equinor, Ørsted, Rijkswaterstaat, RWE, Scottish Government (Offshore Wind Directorate and Marine Directorate), ScottishPower Renewables, Shell, TotalEnergies

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Bethany White, Project Manager