Last June during London Climate Action Week, we convened a roundtable on the future of low carbon fertilisers, bringing together leading voices across the value chain including the technology developer CCM Technologies, the industry manufacturer CF Fertilisers, the industrial development agency UNIDO, the standard setter Green Hydrogen Organisation and Camellia Plc as end user.
Fertiliser is one of the critical yet often overlooked foundations of our global food system. It supports agricultural productivity and underpins food security. However, fertiliser production is also highly emissions-intensive and deeply dependent on fossil fuels.
Our reliance on fossil fuel-based fertilisers is creating a growing supply chain risk. The Iran war has exposed how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through fertiliser markets, threatening food production far beyond the energy sector. The interconnected nature of food, energy and agricultural input systems highlights the need for approaches that both reduce emissions and improve resilience.
As food companies seek credible Scope 3 emissions reductions and governments look to secure food supply chains, low carbon fertilisers are gaining attention as a potential solution. Technologies including green and blue ammonia, electrochemical production, bio-based inputs and circular nutrient recovery could all play a role in reducing the sector's environmental impact while lessening its exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets.
However, technology alone will not be enough to drive the transition. Scaling low carbon fertilisers requires a market environment that rewards lower carbon production, reassure farmers about product performance, enables credible emissions reductions, and reduces risk for investors.
Our roundtable repeatedly returned to a central call to action: the sector does not need to wait for perfect solutions to act. What we need now are practical standards, stronger demand signals and visible proof points that demonstrate how low carbon fertilisers can deliver value in real-world supply chains. Unlocking progress will require coordinated action to create the confidence needed for investment, adoption and scale.
The challenge: A vicious circle of uncertainty
The key barrier to scaling low carbon fertilisers is the absence of coordinated market signals across the value chain. Progress is constrained by a 'circular dependency' in which each stakeholder is waiting for others to move first, creating a vicious circle of uncertainty that limits investment, adoption and market growth.
Breaking this cycle will require coordinated action across the ecosystem. Demand signals, supportive policy frameworks, robust standards and transparent evidence of product performance will all be essential to creating the confidence needed to accelerate adoption and unlock investment in low carbon fertilisers.
Five priorities to scale the market for low carbon fertilisers
If the central challenge is one of confidence rather than chemistry, then the priorities for action become clearer. The sector must focus on creating the practical conditions that reduce risk, build trust and enable investment in the solutions already emerging. Here are five priorities to start with:
1. From perfect definitions to workable standards
To avoid the sector becoming paralysed by complexity, more certainty is required around low carbon hydrogen definitions, product carbon footprint methodologies, chain-of-custody approaches and future regulatory requirements. While robust standards are essential to ensure credibility, waiting for complete global alignment could delay meaningful progress. The priority now should be establishing practical, transparent frameworks that provide sufficient confidence for investment and procurement decisions, while allowing methodologies to mature over time.
2. From passive demand to aggregated demand
Consumers alone won’t drive immediate adoption of low carbon fertilisers as they lack clarity on their impact and often feel separated to the farm. Instead, food brands, retailers, processors and agricultural buyers are best placed to create the demand signals needed to unlock investment. Aggregated demand mechanisms, buyer alliances, long-term offtake agreements and policy-supported mechanisms such as Contracts for Difference could all help narrow the cost gap facing first movers.
3. From global commodity chains to resilient, localised production
The current fertiliser system has been optimised around access to natural gas, resulting in highly concentrated production hubs and long, complex supply chains. However, many of the technologies emerging in the low carbon transition point towards a different geography of production. Green ammonia will naturally gravitate towards locations with abundant low-cost renewable energy, while nutrient recovery, waste-to-value processes and distributed manufacturing models can be located closer to feedstocks and end users. Beyond reducing emissions, this shift could improve resilience by diversifying supply, reducing exposure to geopolitical disruption and creating new economic opportunities in regions with strong renewable resources.
4. From product substitution to farmer usability
Farmers will not adopt new products simply because they are lower carbon. Adoption decisions are driven by a combination of performance, cost, practicality and trust. Alternative fertiliser products often face challenges around nutrient concentration, application rates or compatibility with existing farming systems. Farmers therefore need confidence that new products can deliver comparable agronomic outcomes without introducing additional operational risk. Alongside continued product innovation, there is a clear need for better agronomic advice, demonstration programmes and knowledge sharing across the value chain.
5. From isolated pilots to global proof points
Isolated projects alone will not create a market. What is needed now is a portfolio of visible, commercial-scale demonstrations that prove different pathways can work across diverse geographies, crops and production systems. Success in one market does not guarantee scalability elsewhere; solutions must be tested in both developed and emerging economies, across different climate conditions and supply-chain structures. Demonstration projects can help validate business models, reduce investor uncertainty, build farmer confidence and provide evidence for policy development. Critically, they can also help reduce dependence on imported fertiliser by showcasing alternative production models based on local renewable energy, waste streams or regional feedstocks.
Our call to action
The opportunity now is not to wait for perfect clarity, but to start building the evidence needed for scale. Whether you are a producer, buyer, policymaker, investor or farmer-facing organisation, the question is the same: what role can you play in creating the conditions for adoption? This could mean testing low carbon fertilisers in your supply chain, supporting pilot projects, aggregating demand, improving claims and traceability approaches, or helping to establish practical standards that enable market growth.
The Carbon Trust intends to support this journey by bringing together stakeholders, building the evidence base for what works, and helping to develop the credible frameworks, partnerships and proof points needed to accelerate adoption.
The sector already has many of the solutions it needs. The challenge now is to move from discussion to demonstration, and from ambition to action. If you're ready to explore what this means for your organisation, our experts are here to help. Get in touch.
