This project, part of the Offshore Renewables Joint Industry Programme (ORJIP) for Offshore Wind, sought to assess how uncertainty influences ornithological impact evaluations and provide recommendations for better decision making.
Overview
Ornithological impacts are a key concern in the offshore wind consenting process. Gathering reliable data on these impacts in the marine environment is difficult, and the complexity of the biological processes underpinning these impacts further increase uncertainty. As a result, these uncertainties are significant and influence decision-making within the context of a precautionary approach. This highlights the urgent need to better address uncertainty in assessments and to clarify how uncertainty should be interpreted in decisions around precaution.
To deliver its aims, this project took the following steps:
- Quantifying the current levels of uncertainty throughout the ornithological assessment process. This was done by reviewing the quantitative methods and tools commonly used, examining the available evidence on biological parameter values, and identifying the associated uncertainties with these parameters.
- Applying sensitivity analysis to quantitively determine how key impact metrics are affected by uncertainty in parameter values and model assumptions.
- Updating an earlier strategic review to identify new and emerging knowledge gaps in the ornithological assessment process (for example, issues relating to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza), as well as outlining current research efforts that are addressing previously recognised gaps.
- Engaging with stakeholders by hosting an online workshop and conducting nine in-depth, semi-structured interviews with organisations across the offshore wind sector. This sought to understand how information about uncertainty is applied in assessments, particularly in relation to the precautionary principle.
- Bringing these strands of evidence together to produce recommendations around (a) priority areas for future research aimed at reducing uncertainty and (b) suggested improvements to the way uncertainty is handled and evaluated in ornithological assessments, particularly within the context of a precautionary approach
- Promoting the dissemination and regular updating of these recommendations, including the creation of a visual roadmap that summarises recommendations for the assessment process.
