Offshore Renewables Joint Industry Programme (ORJIP) for Offshore Wind: Modelling of kittiwake metapopulation dynamics (MetaKitti)

The MetaKitti project aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of the scale and strength of kittiwake colony connectivity for UK and North Sea regions relevant to the offshore wind industry and to evaluate the demographic implications of inter-colony movements for determining the vulnerability of kittiwake populations breeding in Special Protection Areas (SPA) to mortality attributed to offshore wind farms (OWF). This understanding will greatly improve the ability to predict how SPA populations will respond to estimated OWF mortality, by bringing greater biological realism to current population viability analysis (PVA) modelling approaches.

In addition, novel knowledge on which colonies may operate as “source” or “sink” populations, and the consequences of sustained immigration and emigration fluxes on population growth, will help inform the design and effectiveness of compensatory measures.

The project scope comprises six key objectives:

  1. Estimating connectivity between kittiwake colonies;
  2. Predicting population responses to OWF predicted mortality in closed vs. open systems;
  3. Modelling source and sink dynamics;
  4. Identifying key demographic data gaps;
  5. Incorporation of new evidence into population viability analysis (PVA) tool and production of guidance for testing compensation scenarios;
  6. Providing recommendations for the use of developed models, including in other regions within the UK and the North Sea, and identification of evidence gaps.

An additional objective throughout the study will be the identification of other factors that may influence migration rates or the effectiveness of compensatory measures, including avian influenza and coastal infrastructure.

Please find our responses to your clarification questions in the list of tender documents below.

The closing date to receive tender submissions is 08 March 2024, 12:00 GMT. All clarification questions and tender submissions should be sent electronically, by their respective deadlines, to ivan.savitsky@carbontrust.com and zilvinas.valantiejus@carbontrust.com.

Tender documents